Macroeconomics
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Will Artificial Intelligence Reduce Inflation or Reshape It?
Artificial intelligence is often described as inherently disinflationary, a productivity revolution that will lower costs and stabilize prices. The reality is more complex. AI could reduce structural inflation in some sectors while intensifying demand, capital spending, and wage polarization in others. This analysis examines how AI interacts with productivity, labor markets, corporate pricing power, and long-term interest rates.
Inflation Uncertainty: How Central Banks Set Interest Rates When the Data Is Incomplete
When inflation data is delayed, distorted, or missing, monetary policy does not pause. It adapts. This deep dive explains how central banks build “shadow inflation” signals using nowcasts, high-frequency proxies, and risk-management frameworks, and why markets can misprice the path of rates when the official numbers lie.
Consumer Spending Resilience and Savings Rate Dynamics
How household balance sheets and shifting savings behaviour are sustaining demand despite higher borrowing costs.
Inflation Persistence and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms
A framework for understanding why inflation remains above target despite aggressive tightening cycles.
Global Economics
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The Return of Industrial Policy: How Trade Strategy Is Redrawing Global Supply Chains
Industrial policy is no longer a theoretical debate. It is actively reshaping global trade, semiconductor production, and strategic manufacturing. From subsidy frameworks to tariff leverage, governments are using trade tools to reengineer supply chains. This analysis examines how the United States, Europe, and Asia are deploying industrial policy, and what it means for global competitiveness and long-term growth.
Oil Prices and Geopolitics: How US Iran Diplomacy Is Moving Energy Markets
Oil markets are no longer driven by supply and demand fundamentals alone. Diplomatic signals, sanctions risk, and shipping disruptions now shape price expectations as much as inventory data. This analysis explores how negotiations between the United States and Iran are influencing crude prices, global growth expectations, and financial markets.
Trade Fragmentation and the Reconfiguration of Global Supply Chains
Assessing the economic costs of geopolitical realignment on international trade flows and sourcing strategies.
Dollar Dominance and the Rise of Alternative Reserve Currencies
Evaluating threats to the dollar's reserve status from the yuan, euro, and digital currency alternatives.
Institute Education
Structured Programs in Economic Analysis
Foundational through advanced programs designed for practitioners, analysts, and researchers.
Policy & Regulation
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Mozambique’s Debt Challenge: Fiscal Consolidation, IMF Pressure, and Market Confidence
Rising financing pressures, limited domestic borrowing capacity, and external debt constraints have pushed Mozambique into a delicate fiscal moment. With scrutiny from the International Monetary Fund intensifying, the country’s path forward illustrates the broader debt sustainability dilemma facing frontier markets.
Post-Brexit Trade Frictions: The Economic Cost of Delayed Digital Borders
The promise of frictionless trade after Brexit depended heavily on digital border systems that would streamline customs, reduce paperwork, and limit delays. As modernization efforts stall, the economic consequences are becoming clearer. This analysis examines how delays in digital border infrastructure in the United Kingdom are affecting trade flows, business investment, and long-term competitiveness.
Competition Policy in the Age of Digital Platforms
How antitrust frameworks are adapting to address market power in platform economies. Regulatory approaches across jurisdictions reveal divergent strategies.
Data & Indicators
Explore All DataUS GDP Growth
2.4%
Eurozone Inflation
2.1%
US Unemployment
3.7%
Global Trade Volume
+1.8%
US Consumer Price Index Update
Core CPI continues to moderate, supporting Federal Reserve projections.
14 February 2026
European Manufacturing PMI
Purchasing managers index signals cautious expansion in Q1.
13 February 2026
Emerging Market Capital Flows
Net inflows recover to pre-2024 levels across key markets.
12 February 2026
The Global Economic Brief
Weekly analysis of macroeconomic trends, policy developments, and institutional research.